Gustav looks scary. Crown Weather Services writes:
It looks to me that Gustav will track through the very warm waters somewhere between the north coast of Jamaica and the south coast of Cuba from Wednesday afternoon through Thursday afternoon. After that, Gustav will track into the northwestern Caribbean south of Cuba on Friday and Saturday where I expect it to intensify to Category 4 strength. I then expect Gustav to track right through the Yucatan Channel and into the southern most Gulf of Mexico late Saturday night as a powerful Category 4 hurricane. All interests in the western and northwestern Caribbean should be aware that a very powerful and dangerous hurricane could affect you late this week into this weekend. [...]
Right now, as of this morning, I am leaning much more towards either a northern or western Gulf Coast hit on Labor Day or next Tuesday with the highest risk from the western Florida Panhandle westward to the Texas coastline and the high risk area centered on the Louisiana and Mississippi coastline. Therefore, all interests along the entire Gulf Coast, especially folks from the Alabama coastline westward to the Texas coastline should pay very close attention to the forecast for Gustav.
Down here in Katrina country, Mississippi it’s been a tradition to look out for storms for a lot longer than I’ve been around. What do we look out for? Or… since I can only speak for myself, what do I look out for?
First, I mostly reference two sites: Weather Underground; and Crown Weather Services. Crown has more on-topic information but it’s harder to find.
The Outlook for the entire Atlantic is shown in this graphic.
And here is the cloud cover for the Gulf of Mexico.
To determine the overall probability of a cyclone loading up on destructive energy from hot seas look at the ocean temperatures for the Atlantic and Gulf. If there is a lot of brick red in the Gulf then any weather pattern finding its way into the Gulf can quickly turn into a monster.
Sometimes it helps to be able to compare this year to the average year. This graphic shows how the current water temperatures compare to historical averages.
To see where a cyclone is likely to go, look at the steering winds.
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August 26, 2008 at 15:33
[...] Original post by beaglescout [...]
August 28, 2008 at 10:49
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August 28, 2008 at 10:52
I just heard from Rush Limbaugh that the storms is now down on Jamaica and it is going to pass by New Orleans. It may land somewhere near the LA/Texas border, or it may go farther west. You should be alright.
August 28, 2008 at 17:19
[...] News » News On the Lookout for Storms in Mississippi2008-08-28 18:19:13Westward country, Mississippi it’s … Coast, especially folks from the Texas [...]
August 30, 2008 at 23:17
As a former Mississippian with inlaws and friends on the Mississippi Gulf Coast as well as my only brother and his son in Slidell, Louisiana I am keeping a very close eye on Gustav (no pun intended). Here in Florida we just got through TS Fay which caused more flooding locally than wind damage.
August 31, 2008 at 05:34
We’re heading out of the storm’s path this morning. See y’all later.